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analytical-validation

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Treats a ctDNA assay as a molecule-counting experiment at the Poisson edge and builds its analytical-validation case the measurement-science way. Covers the genome-equivalent currency (~330 haploid copies/ng), the lambda = input_GE x VAF sampling ceiling (lambda>=3 for ~95% detection), the error-suppression ladder (raw NGS ~1e-3 -> single-strand UMI ~1e-4/1e-5 -> duplex <1e-7), the CLSI EP17 LoB/LoD/LoD95/LoQ framework, the per-locus-vs-panel-integrated LoD distinction that lets bespoke MRD reach ppm, contrived/SEQC2 reference standards, and honest LoD reporting conditioned on input mass + consensus depth + replicate detection rate. Use when stating or trusting a sensitivity claim, designing a dilution-series validation, deciding how many genome equivalents are needed at a target VAF, choosing a single-locus vs panel-integrated LoD, or auditing a "detects 0.1% VAF" claim.

When to use

• stating or trusting a sensitivity claim
• designing a dilution-series validation
• deciding how many genome equivalents are needed at a target VAF
• choosing a single-locus vs panel-integrated LoD
• auditing a 'detects 0.1% VAF' claim
• quantifying the Poisson sampling ceiling
• quantifying the error-suppression floor
• defining a defensible sensitivity claim

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