domains / families / general / thinking-lindy-effect

thinking-lindy-effect

separate

Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.

When to use

• Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
• Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
• Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.

When not to use

• Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
• Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
• Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
• Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.

Skill page

Source