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yao-bayesian

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Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output. Do not use for Bayes theorem tutoring, homework, generic brainstorming with no report, or final licensed medical, legal, or financial advice.

When to use

• structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
• set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
• start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
• export one synchronized Chinese-first `markdown` plus bilingual `html` report

When not to use

• Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
• broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
• final professional medical, legal, or investment advice

Skill page

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