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news-reaction-failure-analyzer

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Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.

When to use

• "Did the market shrug off [event] even though [asset] is crowded long/short?"
• "Run a news-failure check on [symbol]"
• "Is [symbol] confirmed for a Shapiro-style contrarian setup?"
• After `cot-contrarian-detector` flags a market CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT
• 「この市場は好材料に反応しなかった？」
• 「COTで偏っているこの銘柄のニュース失敗を確認して」
• The market isn't crowded (NEUTRAL classification) — this skill refuses
• No curated events JSON exists yet — WebSearch must run first (Phase 2

When not to use

• markets with NEUTRAL classification
• situations where no curated events JSON exists
• fabricating events or URLs

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